Let’s get real. The only college “application inflation” that exists is among the top 5%. For the vast majority of students – especially those from low-income and hard-pressed middle-class families – mismatched applications (i.e. undermatching), college affordability, and college completion are the real problems.
Yet that’s not what Glenn Kessler – the Washington Post’s Fact Checker – thinks. In this past Sunday’s editorial column, he instead laments the angst associated with college admissions that have led some students to submit high numbers of applications (up to 20) due to fear of rejection. He calls it the “Great National Freak-Out” and quotes an anxious parent’s post on College Confidential, a college admissions forum, about how even as a Harvard alum, his own son who’s much more accomplished than he was is getting rejected from places like Cornell and Northwestern.
Kessler’s solution? Place limits on the number of college applications students can submit. “Attending the right college should not be a game of chance,” he says.
But to whom would that suggestion exactly apply? A College Board study using a federal survey of high school sophomores finds that the average number of applications submitted to traditional four-year colleges is 3.16 per student. The most common number of applications is actually two.
The average number of applications also differs by income: students in the top socioeconomic quartile submit almost exactly one more college application than students from all other family quartiles. That’s perhaps unsurprising due to high application fees and limited application fee waivers for low-income students.
But here’s the catch: The super selective colleges that capture media headlines only enroll 5 percent of all undergraduate students. They comprise only 89 colleges or 1 percent of an entire universe of 7,000 colleges and universities.
So what’s going on for the other 95 percent of students and 99 percent of colleges?
First is a bigger problem around application mismatch. Also known as “undermatching,” many students – particularly those from low-income backgrounds – actually apply to too few colleges (or none at all) that match their academic qualifications. Consider that half of low-income students undermatch into colleges less selective than their academic credentials would warrant. Nearly a quarter of students from low-income families undermatch into colleges two full selectivity levels below their qualifications. Only 8 percent of high-achieving, low-income students apply in a manner similar to what their higher-income counterparts do. That means they apply to at least one college comparable to their academic qualifications, at least one safety college with a median test score not more than 15 percentiles lower than their own, and apply to no nonselective colleges.
The consequences of undermatching are far more devastating than just being the smartest kid in the class. By attending less selective institutions with fewer support resources – or not attending college altogether – students who undermatch are substantially less likely to graduate than similarly prepared but better matched peers.
The second bigger problem than too many applications being submitted to the top 1% of schools is college affordability for low-income students and the greater middle class. College tuition rates are up over 4 ½ times the rate of inflation at a time when income growth for poor, working-class, and middle-income families is stagnant. This combination of rising tuition and flat wages has led families to borrow bigger and bigger loans; the average cumulative debt among low-income and working-class bachelor degree graduates who borrowed has nearly doubled in 15 years, from $15,700 in 1993 to $26,100 in 2008. (For more on our take on how to ensure college affordability for low- and middle-income families, see here).
And this leads us to our third bigger problem: college completion. College debt wouldn’t be so bad if graduation rates weren’t so low, especially for students of color. The average graduation rate for full-time students over six years at our nation’s four-year colleges is 60 percent. Only 40 percent of black students and 50 percent of Latino students complete within six years of initial enrollment. Even those who do graduate take, on average, over five years to complete. This slow time to degree increases overall costs for students and families.
So let’s be real. The “Great National Freak-Out” that Kessler describes shouldn’t just refer to the college application anxiety among the 5%. It should also refer to how low- and middle-income students – and the larger public – should feel about their high rates of application mismatch, staggering debt, and low completion numbers.